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Okay, now that the actual singing is over, it's time for the serious part of the Idol game, which is impassioned speculation on who's going to win.
The first part of that equation, the singing, has some relationship to the second part, the winning. Just not necessarily a lot.
The voting demographic for Idol is a lot different than the voting demographic for, say, Presidential or school board elections. For starters, the average Idol voter is probably 60 years younger. But it's likely they're quite alike in one critical area: how they decide whom they're going to vote for.
The way that works with a lot of voters in politics -- I'd say "most voters," but why be cynical? -- is that they decide very early who they're going to support and they spend the rest of the campaign finding reasons to tell themselves they were right. If their candidate says something good, or something they like, it's a bonus. If their candidates says something stupid, does something stupid or says something with which they disagree, they find reasons to support him or her anyway.
Say you like Hillary Clinton. You think we need a Democrat, you have fond memories of Bill, you think it's time for a woman. Whatever. You also think we should pull out of Iraq. But you listen to her talk on that subject and you haven't got a clue what she's saying or what she believes. So you say well, that part of her act needs works, but you still support her for all those reasons in the first sentence.
Or you like Rudy Giuliani because you think he stood tall after 9/11 or he slapped some sense into New York or you just think we need some tough-love attitude in the White House. Then he talks about immigration, or gun control, or abortion, and you're thinking, hmm, that's not what I think. But you tell yourself, aw, no one's perfect and keep supporting him anyway.
It's hard to believe it's that much different with "Idol." A few weeks ago, if not sooner, you decided you liked Jordin for her attitude and can-do spirit. Or you decided you wanted Blake to win because he's like so cute. So when you watched subsequent shows, including last night's, you weren't looking to decide. You'd already done that. You're just making sure your choice is still defensible. If Blake didn't sound great, it's because that wasn't his kind of song. If Jordin didn't sound great, it's because that wasn't her kind of song. He's still cute, she's still bubbly. All systems are still go.
So even though the judges seemed to think Jordin "won" last night, or have spoken more kindly of her singing talent over the last couple of shows, I'm not sure that matters. I think most minds were already made up, which means here, as in Presidential elections, the last few appearances are mostly designed to reassure and energize the base.
That is to say, the decisive factor may be turnout -- which is why, considering the likely turnout rate for Blake's teen followers, a Blake victory tonight would be no more startling than finding a banana in a banana split.
