Weather Blog by The Doctor
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The Doctor's blog: "Weather"

created on 08/04/2008  |  http://fubar.com/weather/b236464
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 ...IKE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES ...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE. IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
700 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 ...LARGE HURRICANE IKE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...920 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM. AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 ...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
To all that view this, before I paste the report, latest models show landfall halfway between Galveston and Corpus Christi. We will be experiencing hurricane force winds by Friday morning if Ike stays on current course. Our EOC (Emergency Operations Center) is activated and I as long as my other fellow employees will be on damage assessment standby. Keep us in your prayers, please. Doc 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 ...LARGE HURRICANE IKE SLOWLY HEADED NORTHWESTWARD... AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES... 1090 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
700 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 ...IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 ...IKE STILL POUNDING WESTERN CUBA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 465 MILES...750 KM ...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80 MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA 62 MPH...100 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 ...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR. THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 ...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...145 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED IN HAVANA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS EAST OF THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER WESTERN CUBA TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WHEN IKE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM. THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT CASABLANCA HAVANA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
800 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008 ...IKE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA... AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA....SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
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