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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN AND ERN IL...WRN IN AND EXTREME WRN
KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 61...
VALID 072015Z - 072215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 61 CONTINUES.
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM
SERN MO THROUGH NERN IL. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR AND NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN IL INTO NRN IND.
DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN IL...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST INTO IND
WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED. STORMS REMAIN MORE DISCRETE ALONG
THE NRN END OF THE LINE ACROSS NERN IL INTO NWRN IND. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS
BACKED RESULTING IN LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THAN FARTHER SOUTH.
THESE STORMS MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY
INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE DEEPER
INTO THE COOL AIR NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP LAYER
WIND PROFILES ARE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
AND SUPERCELLS.
..DIAL.. 04/07/2010
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39188912 40358889 41028849 41058763 40608622 38738736
36788891 36679060 38278957 39188912
