Devildawg15's blog: "The Stimulus Math"

Despite the startling job figures released this week, there are signs
that the nation's economy is finally starting to improve; the end
of the recession may be in sight. But why is the economy improving,
and is this improvement sustainable?

Many on the left are hailing the President's $787 billion "stimulus"
package as the key behind the budding economic turnaround. These same
folks support the President's proposal for a third stimulus spending
package to give the economy a final boost into recovery. But they are
missing one critical point: as Heritage Foundation economist Brian
Riedl explains, "government spending does not stimulate economic
growth."

In a new analysis, Riedl debunks liberal myths about stimulus
spending, details the long history of failed stimulus packages and
provides sound alternatives that offer real economic revitalization.

The Myth: Government can spend its way into prosperity

Stimulus advocates make what is, on the surface, a plausible argument.
They often attribute recessions to a decline in production, which in
turn results from a decrease in individual spending. Increased
government spending, they argue, can make up for this shortfall in
individual spending and prop up production levels.

But stimulus spending doesn't actually increase productivity. Instead,
Riedl argues, it "often reduces long-term productivity by transferring
resources from the more productive private sector to the less
productive government."

Those who support government stimulus packages fail to ask one very
important question: What money is the government actually spending?
Riedl points out that "every dollar Congress injects into the economy
must first be taxed or borrowed out of the economy." It is not new
money. It is money that is redistributed out of the private sector via
taxes and into projects favored by politicians and bureaucrats.

Stimulus spending, in short, is like "removing water from one end of a
swimming pool and pouring it in the other end." In the end, Riedl
explains, "it will not raise the overall water level."

A consistent history of failure

"The idea that increased deficit spending can cure recessions has been
tested repeatedly, and it has failed repeatedly," Riedl says. Here are
just a few of the failed stimulus packages of the past.

*  1930s. New Deal lawmakers doubled federal spending—yet
unemployment remained above 20 percent until World War II.

*  1990. Japan responded to a recession by passing 10 stimulus
spending bills over eight years (building the largest national
debt in the industrialized world)—yet its economy remained
stagnant.

*  2001. President Bush tried to boost the economy out of a
recession by "injecting" tax rebates into the economy, with
little effect. In the end, it was the 2003 tax rate cuts that
allowed the economy to recover.

*  2008. President Bush tried to head off the current recession
with another round of tax rebates. The recession continued to
worsen.

*  2009. The most recent $787 billion stimulus bill was intended to
keep the unemployment rate from exceeding eight percent. In
November, it topped 10 percent. In short, "the stimulus bill
failed by its own standards."

The Solution: It's not a stimulus but it's sure to stimulate our
economy

As December's job figures indicate, the recession is not over yet. But
economic recovery is inevitable, with or without a stimulus package.
Our economy contains built-in, self-correcting mechanisms that enable
it to adjust naturally to market changes. However, our elected leaders
should understand that government intervention can disrupt this
process and stall recovery.

Legislators should consider policies, such as permanent tax rate cuts,
to encourage more business investment and economic growth. "The only
way to increase economic growth," argues Riedl, "is by increasing
productivity and the labor supply." Increasing the production of goods
and services, not redistributing taxpayer money, is the key to
economic recovery.