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What are you waiting for?
Give Steve Jobs
credit: He's managed to get the entire tech community--and much of the
rest of the world--talking about a pricey gadget that only a handful
have seen or touched.
Apple's
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iPhone finally goes on sale June 29, and for many potential buyers, the
only issue is whether they'll be able to get their hands on one, as
it's certain to sell out immediately. But whether you are a music
lover, a business e-mail addict, a mobile power-user or just a normal
consumer, there are several good reasons to think twice about dropping
$500 for the first-generation iPhone.
Will that be enough to slow
iPhone sales after the initial rush? There are, after all, plenty of
other options for consumers who want a smart phone, which is
essentially a high-end phone with the ability to do other functions,
like e-mail. Previously just expensive toys for information technology
nerds and executives, smart phones are gaining mainstream appeal.
Research firm Yankee Group projects that smart phones will grow from
11% of this year's mobile-phone market to about 20% of phone sales in
2010.
In Pictures: Five Reasons To Think Twice About The iPhone
Jobs hopes to pick up 1% of the market by the end of 2008. But
consumers are finicky and have options. If Apple's iPhone doesn't stack
up, numerous competitors, like Samsung, LG Electronics, Nokia
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Windows Mobile platform, will be happy to take their business.
(Elevation Partners, the private equity firm that has invested in
Forbes Media, has announced plans to buy a 25% stake in iPhone competitor Palm
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)).
The
iPhone's battery is one example of a feature that could flop. By all
indications--Apple is still being mum about almost all details
regarding the device--the iPhone's rechargeable battery is sealed
inside its case. That's what Apple does already with its iPod devices,
presumably to save space. The company says the battery will last up to
five hours of talking, watching video and browsing the Internet.
But
it's not clear how those claims will measure up in the real world. What
happens if you use the phone's wi-fi connection heavily? Or a Bluetooth
earpiece? Without a midday charging pit stop, iPhone owners may have to
consistently choose between using its Web and multimedia features or
saving battery power for phone calls.
Other smart phones have
similar battery drawbacks. Palm, for example, says the battery in its
newest Treo 755p will last for up to four hours and 12 minutes of talk
time. But when that's up, you can easily swap out the Treo battery for
a charged replacement. Many people carry a spare, especially while
traveling on business. With the iPhone, it seems you may be tethered to
a backup-battery accessory, which is far from ideal.
Making
matters worse, rechargeable batteries have a limited lifespan and can
be charged only a finite number of times. This number varies, but Apple says
a properly maintained iPod battery--whatever that really means--can
retain 80% of its original capacity after 400 full charging cycles.
Eventually, it will hold a charge so short that it must be replaced,
which could at best mean a trip to an Apple or AT&T
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The
iPhone's stripped-down data features could also provide incentive to
wait for a better offer. Apple's boilerplate is that the iPhone is a
"revolutionary" device for browsing the Internet on the go. To an
extent, it has a point: Apple's Safari is arguably the most powerful
mobile Web browser. And the iPhone's large display will surely make
surfing the Web more enjoyable and functional than on a tiny Motorola
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But
for whatever reason, Apple decided not to allow the iPhone to work on
AT&T's fastest, "third-generation" (or 3G) wireless network, opting
instead for its slower "EDGE" network. The difference is apparent even
on a small-screen device browsing scaled-down, mobile-edition Web
sites. When you're surfing full-size Web pages, as Apple touts on the
iPhone, the slow speeds could be a deal breaker.
During Apple's
first-quarter earnings conference call, finance chief Peter Oppenheimer
said the company is "very much sold" on the slower network because it
is more widespread in the U.S. This is a valid point, sort of. AT&T
says it has 3G coverage available in 165 major U.S. metro areas, with
dozens more on the way, and EDGE coverage in 13,000 cities and towns.
But a 3G device can seamlessly hop between the faster and slower
networks. And many of the iPhone's competitors, like the 7-month-old
Samsung BlackJack, do just that. So why did Apple skimp?
One
reason may be the iPhone's built-in wi-fi capability, meaning it can
connect to local hot spots and avoid AT&T's data network
altogether. This is much faster than using the cellular Web, but
imperfect. Wi-fi access is not as universal as you think, and often
it's not free. Spending $10 to use a faster Internet at Starbucks
doesn't sound practical on top of a $40-per-month, all-you-can-eat EDGE
data plan. You may already have a wi-fi hot spot in your home or
office--but chances are, you have a computer there, too, with a screen
larger than 3.5 inches.
Then again, wi-fi may be a cool feature
if Apple opens the iPhone up to developers to write interesting
software like network or peer-to-peer games, on-the-go photo sharing
software or any other mobile-friendly apps. Jobs is particularly fond
of the iPhone's Google Maps software, which he says "blows away" any
previous version, and the iPod music software, which he says is "the
best iPod we've ever made." But it's not clear if Apple will let other
people write software for the iPhone, at least right away, and that
could be a reason to stay away.
For example, if you're looking
to check your corporate e-mail with any ease, you may have to wait.
It's not clear if the iPhone's e-mail software will initially--or
imminently--support "push" e-mail from Microsoft Exchange e-mail
servers or Research in Motion
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) BlackBerry servers. Apple has a deal with Yahoo!
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to support real-time "push" e-mail delivery. But CrackBerry addicts
should be iPhone-hesitant, at least until we get more information about
compatibility. (RIM did not immediately return a request for comment.)
Jobs said recently that Apple is "working to find a way to allow developers to build applications" but that security is a sticking point.
Rabid
e-mailers or texters may also be skeptical about the iPhone's
keyboard-free design. Jobs dislikes the tiny QWERTY thumb keyboards on
many of today's smart phones, with good reason: Typing is slower and
less accurate than on a normal, full-sized keyboard.
But it's
not apparent that typing on a touchscreen will necessarily be any
better. Many BlackBerry users, once familiar with the keyboard, can
type without looking. Can you thumb out a text message on an iPhone
screen without undivided attention? Will it work in the rain? Or if
you're wearing a bandage? Will it scratch, as the iPod screens have
been infamous for?
Lastly, one of the most anticipated, unknown
iPhone features is its real price tag. We already know that it will
cost $500 to $600, depending on storage capacity. But AT&T's
contract requirements could easily quadruple that price. To qualify for
the lowest pricing on many smart phones, carriers require that you
subscribe to an all-you-can-eat data plan for around $40 per month, in
addition to a $40-or-more-per-month calling plan.
So much for
getting the cheapest calling plan and just using the wi-fi feature for
the Internet. Add text messaging and taxes, and you're looking at a
bill near $90 per month. Over the two-year contract period, that's more
than $2,000.
Businesses manage that expense for executives'
BlackBerrys, but will consumers happily pay that much? AT&T says
existing customers will get the same deal as new customers switching
from Verizon Wireless or Sprint Nextel
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)--but
subscribers will have to extend their contract for two more years. Will
AT&T offer a version for prepaid service subscribers? Many
consumers can justify buying a $500 smart phone/iPod hybrid. But
AT&T's service terms could break the deal.
Tags: Apple Inc. | iPhone | mobility
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