I was just thinking about something that intrigued me.
How much has the popularity of the Internet changed the election process over the years?
At age 32, I've only experienced six presidents in my time on this Earth: Ford, Carter, Regan, Bush Sr., Clinton, and Bush Jr. I've taken some time to analyze the elections of each of these presidents.
When I was born in 1975, global media and the near-instant broadcast of information had been well-established (television media is often mentioned as a major reason Kennedy was elected in the 1960s). Ford became president after Nixon's impeachment, and global media was already a key element in the election process.
I'm really going to start with the first president I remember, however: Ronald Regan (I was too young to remember either Ford or Carter, and thus cannot speak with any authority on their campaigns).
1980: Ronald Regan was formerly an actor, so naturally had great screen presence and public speaking abilities. He spoke well to the public, and was more than capable of telling people what they wanted to hear. Because of his acting abilities, he was able to hide his shortcomings as a politician from the public eye. Also during this time, the Internet, as we know it today, was completely unheard of. In fact, it wasn't even really known as the Internet. It was still in the late stages of ArpaNet, and has not yet come into the public eye. All anyone in the general public knew about Regan was what they knew from televised news and live events. He was elected, likely based solely on his charisma and speaking skills - he was even elected to two terms. The Internet also did not play a major role in his reelection, as the old ArpaNet had just invented TCP/IP (the standard transmission protocol on our current Internet) in 1983, and didn't go public until 1988. The only nationwide transfer of information was either across ArpaNet, between the military, government, and colleges; or between BBS (Bulletin Board System) users, that were able to dial into local BBSs, or afford the costs of direct dialing to other BBS sites outside of their local calling area. In these days, transfer of information was greatly reduced, due to bandwith concerns - 3600 baud (roughly 1/10th the speed of a 33.6kbps modem connection, and 1/10,000-100,000 the speed of today's average broadband connection).
1988: George H. W. Bush was Regan's Vice-President. His "Thousand Points of Light" campaign suggested to the American public a better way of life, following in Regan's footsteps. After all, under Regan, the cold war ended, the Berlin Wall fell, and there was a renewed sense of unity in the world. On the whole, the American public was quite happy with the state of the world, and greatly desired the continuation of the course Regan had established. The Internet, at this point, had only just opened to commercial interests. Only a select few of the general public actually had access. Most commonly, access was gotten through work in a corporate environment, and Internet news services were still a twinkle in the eye of Internet providers. Without the immediate and free transfer of knowledge provided by the Internet, the American public was largely unaware of George H. W. Bush's father's involvement with the Nazi Party. They were largely unaware of the family connections to big oil and big business. With these things being shielded from the public, the American public was more than happy to vote in George H. W. Bush as the 41st President of the USA.
1992: Bill Clinton ran for President. The American public was still very torn between the justifications for Desert Storm (Iraq War 1), and wanting to better life at home. Bush Sr. was on the outs as a President, and the public saw Clinton as a new hope for America. Even in 1992, use of the Internet was still very rare. It had seen public access, and companies such as Compuserve had been selling dial-up access to the general public. Access was still highly limited, though. This was the day of the 286 PC, BBS servers still reigned supreme, and email was still relegated to the wealthy and the corporate. The average American, had he heard of it, may have been able to reserve early Internet time in the local library, if he did not have it at work. As much dirt as came out on Clinton during this race, it was still only relegated to broadcast news (and the fledgling cable TV services) as far as the general public was concerned. What we heard is what the media chose to broadcast.
2000: George W. Bush is campaigning for the presidency, with a renewed vigor for the Republican party, which is feeling a little out of sorts, after spending eight years under a Democratic president. The Internet is in full swing, though only about 55% of American households have access to it. The rest either have no access, access through work, or access through libraries or school. Overall usage is still limited. Even though 55% of Americans have access, only about 20% use it for more than social networking, porn, or other frivolous pursuits. Even still, there is enough of a user base to disseminate information globally. While only about 3% of Internet users got their political news directly from the Internet, it was enough of a resource to put information into the hands of the broadcasters. During the 2000 election, we see the first real impact of the Internet on elections. Information, that was originally only known through the Internet, starts making its way into mainstream media broadcasts on television and cable networks.
2004: George W. Bush is running for re-election. Due to the prolific nature of the Internet, this is the first election really effected by the Internet. Word of government coverups comes forward. News of classified documents comes to light (with the recent passing of the Freedom of Information Act). For the first time ever, there is massive clouding because of the combination of what is said and what is truth. The Internet, and the access to massive amounts of information that it provides, is solely responsible for this. For the first time in American history, the American public has access to information that was previously unattainable, save a trip to the National Archives. Additionally, during this election year, Candidates were forced to respond to Internet accusations against their campaign. Once again, for the first time ever, Americans are able to directly communicate with each other regarding political standpoints. The public is able to access huge amounts of information that wouldn't be available without the Internet.
2008: We don't know who will be president yet. It's looking like the general election will come down to Obama vs. McCain. The Internet tells the story far more than it has ever before. For the first time ever, the US has seen a candidate that has run almost entirely by the Internet: Ron Paul. The public media has largely removed him from their coverage, as he's really too radical to figure into the leadership of the US as it stands. Paul, on the other hand, has waged most of his campaign on the Internet, and has been quite successful at it. It is uncertain whether he will actually be able to win a seat in the general election or not. This election year is more important than any before it. On the general side, the election appears to be between general White America, a woman, a black/middle eastern/general minority, and a radical. Two for each party. The internet is buzzing with debate for and against every candidate. This will be the year that the Internet wins the presidency. Now more than ever are candidates following internet chat rooms, polls, message boards, and 3rd party opinion sites.
In thirty years, the Internet has come from a dream for the future to a major player in current events. How will it affect the future?
Nobody knows...
