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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL IL AND WRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071754Z - 072030Z
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN IL SSWWD THROUGH SERN
MO...NRN AR AND ERN TX. WARM FRONT STRETCHES EWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH NRN IL...NWRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI. SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD DECK CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER.
MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG DUE TO MODEST LAPSE RATES
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN THE WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. SWLY BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL
PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150 M2/S2.
SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES WITH BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS LIKELY.
..DIAL.. 04/07/2010
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 41208746 40448683 39238729 37938826 37138946 37389019
37999015 39108972 40878946 41208746
