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ekansekans's blog: "df"

created on 10/29/2012  |  http://fubar.com/df/b351055

With the NBA season tipping off, a couple of quick notes about expectations for the season. Aaron Rodgers Elite Jersey . The first point should be that everyone, every single one of you plus a friend or two, should check out the TSN.ca NBA Preview. A lot of people put in a lot of work and the team pages are outstanding -- they look great and are chock full of information. Now, about expectations. Going into most NBA seasons, there are usually no more than a handful of teams that might be considered as potential champions and this year a handful might be stretching it. Naturally, the defending-champion Miami Heat are first and foremost, while the loaded Los Angeles Lakers (despite their train wreck of an opener) are top contenders as well. The next team that might be considered championship-worthy, the Oklahoma City Thunder, just traded their third-best player, James Harden, and while the return provided plenty of future value, the Thunder appear to have compromised present value to save money. These are choices made in business every day, but businesses dont necessarily come with championship windows and the Thunder may have sacrificed some of theirs if their new faces dont measure up. Beyond those three, however, it gets awfully dicey. The San Antonio Spurs had the leagues best record last season, but their best players are in the twilight of their careers; a situation not unlike what the Boston Celtics face. Other teams that might be considered interesting -- the Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies or Indiana Pacers -- dont appear quite ready to tangle with the big dogs. The Chicago Bulls were set to rival the Heat for Eastern Conference supremacy for years to come, but then superstar point guard Derrick Rose tore his ACL in the playoffs last season, leaving this season in considerable doubt. Its possible that Rose makes it back into the lineup before seasons end, but its also not especially advisable to rush your franchise player back from a serious knee injury. For that reason, it appears that this isnt going to be a year of contention for the Bulls. As it stands now, though, the Heat, Lakers and Thunder are the three teams with the greatest chance to win the NBA Championship. Those are the expectations. Will another team rise up and exceed expectations? Will an injury knock a contender out of the mix? Now that the games are being played, well watch and find out. OVER/UNDERComing into every season, I like to look for value on the forecasted win totals. Here are some that caught my interest this season (lines from www.bet365.com): L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 50.5 WINS - The Clippers have surrounded Chris Paul and Blake Griffin with a lot of experience -- adding vets Grant Hill, Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom and Matt Barnes to a roster that already included Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups -- and while there is risk that some of these players are beyond the point of being positive contributors, players that know how to win make for a valuable supporting cast and a team good enough to improve on last seasons 50-win pace. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER UNDER 60.5 WINS - Its not easy to win more than 60 games in the NBA for any team, let alone one that traded their third-best player. Thunder should still be very good, and might be a 60-win team, but it seems much safer to side with the under now that James Harden is in Houston. SAN ANTONIO SPURS UNDER 54.5 WINS - The Spurs have been great for so long, including the last two seasons, when they won a combined 115 games, but its not unreasonable to think that age will finally catch up to them. With Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili both north of 35, all it would take is a long-term injury to one of those cornerstones to leaves the Spurs with a merely very good, rather than exceptional, record. INDIANA PACERS UNDER 50.5 WINS - Are the Pacers ready to take that next step, after winning 42 of 66 games last season? Its possible, particularly if Paul George makes a leap in his third season, but starting the year without Danny Granger is a concern and the offseason additions -- D.J. Augustin, Gerald Green, Ian Mahinmi -- dont have extensive track records of success in the league. Maybe it takes another year before the Pacers are ready. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS UNDER 47.5 WINS - With Andrew Bynum out indefinitely due to a knee injury, the Sixers are a high-risk team. They have enough depth to remain competitive, but they faded in the second half last season, going 15-22 after a 20-9 start. Unless Bynum gets healthy, and quick, its not unreasonable to envision a battle just to play .500 ball. SACRAMENTO KINGS OVER 30.5 WINS - Its been at least four years since the Kings have been remotely relevant (they were only 38-44 five years ago, so they may not have been too relevant then, either), but that struggling has allowed them to accumulate some quality young talent. Maybe they dont all fit together ideally, but with rookie Thomas Robinson joining DeMarcus Cousins in the frontcourt, Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton gunning from the wings and point guard Isaiah Thomas the one responsible for passing, well, the Kings could get up to the mid-30s in wins. WASHINGTON WIZARDS UNDER 29.5 WINS - No John Wall. Nene is out. The opening night Wizards rotation was anchored by veterans Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza, guys good enough to be the best players on a 20-win team. MILWAUKEE BUCKS OVER 37 WINS - Subjectively, I dont particularly like this one, because it means counting on the guard pairing of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis to work, at least to some degree, and adding Samuel Dalembert is hardly the cure-all for a team needing an upgrade in the low post, but the Bucks do tend to play hard for head coach Scott Skiles, so a 38-40 win season shouldnt be altogether out of the question. As for the Toronto Raptors, Im enough of an optimist to like them over the 32.5 line that was posted, but Im not alone. To get the Raptors over 32.5 costs -180, so my expectation for a win total in the high-30s (my projection is for 39) might have been a good play if the money line wasnt so prohibitive. One last bit of business. Im in three fantasy leagues, with rosters of varying sizes and category requirements, so there isnt a uniform strategy between the leagues, but here are the players that I have picked for this season, giving some indication on which players I think will provide value. POINT GUARDSRussell WestbrookSteve Nash (2)Ricky RubioIsaiah ThomasKirk Hinrich (2) SHOOTING GUARDSDwyane WadeMonta EllisManu Ginobili (2)Kevin MartinRay AllenRodney StuckeyTerrence Ross SMALL FORWARDSKevin DurantCarmelo AnthonyGerald WallaceDanilo GallinariMichael BeasleyDerrick Williams (2) POWER FORWARDSChris BoshZach RandolphRyan AndersonKenneth FariedThomas Robinson CENTRESAl JeffersonBrook LopezTim DuncanJonas Valanciunas (2)J.J. Hickson (2)Nikola Vucevic (2)Omer Asik Aaron Rodgers Nike Jersey . Manager Dale Sveum confirmed the news Monday night before the start of a three-game series against the New York Mets. Randall Cobb Jersey . -- The Chicago Bears have agreed to a four-year contract with second-round draft pick Alshon Jeffery. http://www.shopthepackersjersey.com/clay-matthews-jersey . Lipon currently has a five-game point streak that includes seven goals and 14 points. He now has 18 points in eight games this season, which leads the WHL in scoring. Charles Woodson Black Jersey . Brouillette had to be taken off the field on a stretcher. After the game, Montreal head coach Marc Trestman said Brouillette suffered a concussion but was otherwise doing well. Clay Matthews Pink Jersey . -- Robert Griffin III is the first rookie quarterback to win an offensive player of the week award after his debut game.LOS ANGELES -- Bob Wolfe, who worked with new Dodgers President and CEO Stan Kasten with the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals, has joined Los Angeles as executive vice-president. The Dodgers announced the move Thursday. Kasten brought Wolfe to the Nationals, where he served as executive vice-president from 2006 to 2011. He also worked with Kasten in various capacities with the Braves and the NBAs Atlanta Hawks for more than 20 yyears, including serving as the Braves senior vice-president of administration from 1992-2003. Aaron Rodgers Packers Jersey. Kasten said in a statement that Wolfes experience and skill in making improvements will be welcome in Los Angeles. The team said in the statement that Wolfes expertise in baseball and facility management includes stadium development and operations, finance and administration and minor-league business operations. ' ' '

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